作者：Flipboard

① 梅西6夺金球奖创纪录

② 《黑寡妇》全球首支先导预告片出炉

③ 张云雷就“辱程”事件道歉

【热议】伦敦桥恐袭遇难者父亲发文：不希望儿子的死被用于煽动仇恨

当地时间11月29日， 25岁的英国大学生杰克·梅里特（Jack Merritt）在伦敦桥恐袭事件中遇害。12月2日，《卫报》刊登了一篇杰克的父亲大卫·梅里特（David Merritt）所写的文章。大卫称，杰克之死被人用于进一步煽动仇恨，而这正是杰克生前致力于反对的事情。详情>>

【体育】梅西6夺金球奖创纪录，对巴萨情感胜过任何纸面协议

北京时间3日凌晨，一年一度的金球奖的颁奖典礼在法国巴黎举行。阿根廷巨星梅西个人第6次获得金球奖，成为历史上获得该奖项次数最多的球员。详情>>

【娱乐】《黑寡妇》全球首支先导预告片出炉，2020年北美上映

12月3日，漫威电影《黑寡妇》全球首支先导预告片出炉。该片将于2020年5月1日在北美上映。影片由凯特·绍特兰执导，斯嘉丽·约翰逊回归主演。故事时间线在《美国队长3》之后，也会涉及《复联》中曾提到的布达佩斯的故事。详情>>

【热议】张云雷就“辱程”事件道歉：口不择言、深感自责、诚挚道歉

12月3日，张云雷微博发布道歉信。信中写道：我要向梅葆玖、李世济、张火丁三位京剧表演艺术家、您的家人以及所有粉丝说声对不起。由于我在之前的相声表演中口不择言，以致给您造成这样的伤害和困扰，我深感自责，我诚挚地在这里道歉，对不起！详情>>

【国际】内塔尼亚胡涉贪腐遭正式起诉，333人庞大“证人团”受关注

当地时间12月2日，以色列总检察长曼德尔卜利特正式向以色列议会议长尤利·埃德尔斯坦提交了针对总理内塔尼亚胡的起诉书。据悉，检方共罗列了多达333名证人的名单。对此，内塔尼亚胡称这是因为检方难以保证“指控的有效性”。详情>>

红板报编辑部

2019.12.3

Soldiers secure an area in view of the aurora borealis during night live-fire training as part of Exercise Spartan Cerberus at Fort Greely, Alaska, October 25, 2016.US Department of Defense

• The past decade has tested military alliances and brought on threats few could have imagined.
• ISIS’s use of social media to recruit fighters and disseminate propaganda was unprecedented, Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s government has relied on Facebook disinformation to bolster support for his drug war and disparage his enemies.
• Russia has used both Syria and Ukraine as testing fields for hardware and propaganda campaigns.

The past decade has tested military alliances and brought 0n threats few could have imagined.

In many ways, the principles of conflict never change — there is always an enemy to be vanquished, and the consequences are always tragic. But in the past decade, technology re-defined how we fight most of our conflicts.

Whether it’s artificial intelligence, disinformation, or hypersonic missiles, this decade’s conflicts have been defined by rapid technological advances — and the manipulation of technologies built for civilian use.

From North Korea’s nuclear threats to Syria’s chaotic battlefield, here are the conflicts that have defined our decade.

Ukraine has become a laboratory for Russia’s advanced warfare.

A pro-Russian soldier is back dropped by Russia’s flag while manning a machine-gun outside an Ukrainian military base in Perevalne, Ukraine.AP

George Kent, the State Department official who testified during an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s allegedly pressuring Ukraine for political dirt, told Military Times in July that Russia tests much of its battlefield equipment and tactics right next door in Ukraine.

“Ukraine is a laboratory of techniques and procedures,” Kent said.

Kent, the deputy assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, described a sniper “school” on the frontlines of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

“They just do on the front lines with Ukraine. Much of the equipment that they are developing that shows up elsewhere, including in Syria, they try out first in Ukraine.”

Dispatches from Vice chronicled Russia’s incursion into Ukraine starting in 2014. At the time, a popular revolution had toppled the pro-Russia leadership in Kyiv, which alarmed Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and supports separatist militias in the Donbass region, on the border between Ukraine and Russia. It even has some of its own fighters mixed in with the troops, The Washington Post reports.

Russia has deployed Wagner Group mercenaries to fight in Ukraine, a tactic that it’s strategically utilizing and spreading to enhance its influence in Africa and the Middle East. The Wagner Group is now reportedly operating in Syria, Libya, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.

Russia also used hybrid warfare tactics like social media disinformation to foment distrust in the government and to generate support for Russian control of contested areas, which foretold the interference campaign Russia would run in the 2016 US presidential elecion, The Washington Post reported last year.

Syria’s longstanding quagmire of a civil war has gone through several battlefield iterations.

U.S. forces patrol Syrian oil fields, in eastern Syria, in late October.Associated Press

If you have turned on a TV or read the news during the past few months, you have probably heard of the widespread fires that wrought havoc on the Amazon rainforest this year. Fires occur in the rainforest every year, but the past 11 months saw the number of fires increase by more than 70% when compared with 2018, indicating a major acceleration in land clearing by the country’s logging and farming industries.

The smoke from the fires rose high into the atmosphere and could be seen from space. Some regions of Brazil became covered in thick smoke that closed airports and darkened city skies.

As the rainforest burns, it releases enormous amounts of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and larger particles of so-called “black carbon” (smoke and soot). The phrase “enormous amounts” hardly does the numbers justice – in any given year, the burning of forests and grasslands in South America emits a whopping 800,000 tonnes of black carbon into the atmosphere.

This truly astounding amount is almost double the black carbon produced by all combined energy use in Europe over 12 months. Not only does this absurd amount of smoke cause health issuesand contribute to global warming but, as a growing number of scientific studies are showing, it also more directly contributes to the melting of glaciers.

In a new paper published in the journal Scientific Reports, a team of researchers has outlined how smoke from fires in the Amazon in 2010 made glaciers in the Andes melt more quickly.South America: the Andes mountains run along the western edge of the Amazon basin (centre). AridOcean / shutterstock

When fires in the Amazon emit black carbon during the peak burning season (August to October), winds carry these clouds of smoke to Andean glaciers, which can sit higher than 5,000 metres above sea level.

Despite being invisible to the naked eye, black carbon particles affect the ability of the snow to reflect incoming sunlight, a phenomenon known as “albedo”. Similar to how a dark-coloured car will heat up more quickly in direct sunlight when compared with a light-coloured one, glaciers covered by black carbon particles will absorb more heat, and thus melt faster.

By using a computer simulation of how particles move through the atmosphere, known as HYSPLIT, the team was able to show that smoke plumes from the Amazon are carried by winds to the Andes, where they fall as an invisible mist across glaciers. Altogether, they found that fires in the Amazon in 2010 caused a 4.5% increase in water runoff from Zongo Glacier in Bolivia.The Zongo glacier is found on the slopes of Huayna Potosi, one of Bolivia’s highest mountains. Ryan Michael Wilson / shutterstock

Crucially, the authors also found that the effect of black carbon depends on the amount of dust covering a glacier – if the amount of dust is higher, then the glacier will already be absorbing most of the heat that might have been absorbed by the black carbon. Land clearing is one of the reasons that dust levels over South America doubled during the 20th century.

Glaciers are some of the most important natural resources on the planet. Himalayan glaciers provide drinking water for 240m people, and 1.9 billion rely on them for food. In South America, glaciers are crucial for water supply – in some towns, including Huaraz in Peru, more than 85% of drinking water comes from glaciers during times of drought. However, these truly vital sources of water are increasingly under threat as the planet feels the effects of global warming. Glaciers in the Andes have been receding rapidly for the last 50 years.

The tropical belt of South America is predicted to become more dry and arid as the climate changes. A drier climate means more dust, and more fires. It also means more droughts, which make towns more reliant on glaciers for water.

Unfortunately, as the above study shows, the fires assisted by dry conditions help to make these vital sources of water vanish more quickly. The role of black carbon in glacier melting is an exceedingly complex process – currently, the climate models used to predict the future melting of glaciers in the Andes do not incorporate black carbon. As the authors of this new study show, this is likely causing the rate of glacial melt to be underestimated in many current assessments.

With communities reliant on glaciers for water, and these same glaciers likely to melt faster as the climate warms, work examining complex forces like black carbon and albedo changes is needed more now than ever before.

Source Link: https://theconversation.com/amazon-fires-are-causing-glaciers-in-the-andes-to-melt-even-faster-128023

① 华为前员工因舆论压力过大，已买票回老家

② 孟晚舟被无理拘押满一年，外交部敦促放人

③ 区块链、我太难了……2019年十大流行语公布

【热议】知情人士：华为前员工李洪元舆论压力过大，已买票回老家

12月2日消息，华为前员工李洪元因一笔30万的离职补偿费，被以敲诈勒索为由起诉，并被拘留251天。腾讯《深网》从接近李洪元的知情人士处获悉，自媒体对其事件进行报道和采访以来，他压力非常大，尤其是关于希望能够对话任正非的诉求，受到来自许多舆论的质疑，本人压力过大已买票准备回老家休息调整。详情>>

【时事】孟晚舟被加拿大无理拘押一年，外交部再次敦促加方放人

12月2日，外交部发言人华春莹主持例行记者会。她表示，中国公民、华为公司副董事长孟晚舟被加拿大因美方要求无理拘押，迄今已经一整年。我们在此强烈敦促加方认真对待中方严正立场和关切，以切实举措纠正错误，尽早释放孟晚舟女士，确保她早日平安地回到祖国。详情>>

【热议】区块链、硬核、我太难了……2019年十大流行语来了

《咬文嚼字》编辑部发布2019年十大流行语：区块链、硬核、我太难了、柠檬精、融梗、xx千万条，xx第一条、996、我不要你觉得，我要我觉得、霸凌主义、文明互鉴。详情>>

【国际】波兰约2000名“圣诞老人”参加摩托游行，为贫困儿童筹募资金

当地时间12月1日，波兰格但斯克，约2000名“圣诞老人”参加一年一度的大型骑摩托游行活动。该活动旨在筹募资金，为贫困儿童捐赠圣诞包裹及温暖的餐食。详情>>

【国际】苏格兰首席大臣：大选将“定义和塑造英国”，苏格兰有权自决

12月12日，英国将提前举行大选。目前，各党派密集开展的竞选活动进入白热化阶段，“脱欧”和英国国家医疗服务体系（NHS）等议题成为各方争论的焦点。苏格兰首席大臣尼古拉·斯特金（Nicola Sturgeon）在英国《金融时报》网站上撰文指出，即将举行的大选，将“定义和塑造英国”。详情>>

红板报编辑部

2019.12.2

① 寿司之神餐厅被米其林除名

② 网易与被裁员工达成和解

③ VIPKID悬赏10万元寻找破产谣言发布者

【热议】寿司之神餐厅被米其林除名：不接受普通人预约，就无评选资格

近日，日本米其林官方发布了2020年版《东京米其林指南》，一直被认为是“拥有世界上最好寿司服务”的“数寄屋桥次郎本店”却从榜单上消失了。落榜理由并非餐点质量下降，而是这家高级寿司店已不接受普通人的预约，因而失去评选资格。详情>>

【热议】网易就“患病职工离职”事件处理结果：处分4名主管1名员工

29日下午，此前发文称遭网易“暴力裁员”的前员工，在微信公众号“你的游戏我的心”发消息称，他已经与网易达成和解，网易将全力协助其治疗。网易在关于此事的处理结果中写道，已对涉事的4名主管和1名员工进行了不同层级处分，并向这位同事及其家人、公众致歉。详情>>

【科技】被传言破产，VIPKID悬赏10万元寻找消息发布者

继否认倒闭传闻一个月后，VIPKID又被传言称即将破产。VIPKID在微信公众号否认破产，并宣布悬赏10万元寻找传言发布者。为证明该传言系谣言，VIPKID表示：“刚完成腾讯10亿元追加融资，且开学季收入突破27亿元。”详情>>

【时事】多所香港高校排名下跌，业界忧校园政治化拖垮学术发展

近日各项高校国际排名陆续公布，香港高校在多项排名中名次下跌。有教育界人士认为，校园政治化长远拖累香港学术发展，造成人才流失。香港教育政策关注社主席张民炳表示，香港高等教育出现政治化的情况越来越严重，这些不必要的政治气氛冲淡了学术、研究等的重要性。详情>>

【热议】李国庆俞渝离婚案开庭，李国庆要求平分股权

29日，当当创始人李国庆与妻子俞渝离婚案在北京某法院开庭。据悉，俞渝并未出庭，而是委托律师代理，李国庆则背着双肩包出现在法院门口。他表示，此次开庭他的诉求是离婚、平分股权，还透露手头有充足证据，对判决结果有信心。详情>>

红板报编辑部

2019.11.29

November 28, 2019 9.41am GMT

In the near future, global warming is expected to create millions of climate refugees, and individuals and organisations are already searching for ways to help them. Some ideas are obvious, such as improving conditions in refugee camps.

But there are also more high-tech projects such as using algorithms to forecast where displaced people will travel to. Such forecasts are crucial. They can help support organisations prepare in the right places, they can evaluate current policy (by assessing a counterfactual “what if” scenario) and they can also help predict refugee populations in remote or dangerous areas where there is little empirical data.

So we can predict where climate refugees will go, right?

No. Despite bold and excitable claims that refugee forecasting is largely resolved, we are not convinced. As computer scientists who work on this exact problem, such claims seem like a painful example of running before we can walk.

Almost four years ago, we started to research how people fled from armed conflicts. Many people were displaced due to the Arab Spring and the Syrian War, but little work had been done to predict where they could end up.Africa’s Sahel region contains many of the world’s most climate-vulnerable people. mbrand85 / shutterstock

With our colleague David Bell, we created a tool that could help, and published our work in Nature Scientific Reports. Our tool represents every person as an independent agent, and then uses simple rules-of-thumb derived from scientific insights – for instance “people tend to avoid travelling through mountains when it is raining” – to determine when they will move next, and to where.

This is different from “machine learning” approaches, which use historical data to “train” the algorithm to generate rules and thus predictions. So, for example, machine learning might be given this sort of data: “the number of people that arrived in a refugee camp close to a mountainous area in a conflict that occurred perhaps many years ago, or more recently but in a different country.” The main issue is that historical data used for machine learning is always quantitative, and never is about the conflict that the simulation is directly developed for.

To see how our method worked in practice, we tested our tool against UNHCR data from three recent conflicts in Burundi, the Central African Republic and Mali. Our tool correctly predicted where more than 75% of the refugees would go.Network models for (a) Burundi, (b) Central African Republic and (c) Mali. Conflict zones (red circles), refugee camps (dark green circles), forwarding hubs (light green circles) and other major settlements (yellow circles). Suleimenova et al (2017)

We have since applied our analysis to refugees fleeing conflict in South Sudan, as part of the HiDALGO project. In this study, forthcoming in the Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, we also looked at how policy decisions like border closures affected the movement of refugees into neighbouring countries, such as Ethiopia or Uganda.

We found there was indeed a link – closing the Uganda border in our model causes 40% fewer “agents” to arrive in camps after 300 days, and that effect lingers even after we reopened the border on day 301. Our tool correctly predicted where 75% of the refugees would actually go in real life.

But doing a correct “retrodiction” in these historical cases does not mean that you can do a forecast. Forecasting where people will go is much harder than predicting a historical situation, for three reasons.A school in Uganda for refugees from war in South Sudan. Roberto Maldeno / flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

1. Every model makes assumptions. For instance, a model that forecasts where refugees go might makes assumptions about their mode of transport, or the likelihood that they stay overnight in a place where violence has previously occurred. When forecasting, we need to know what happens when we give these assumptions a little shake (we examine this in the VECMA project). The less evidence we have for an assumption, the more we need to shake it and analyse how our model responds. Machine learning models generate implicit (and ill-justified) assumptions automatically when they are trained – for example, chosen destinations correlate with the stock value of company X. In agent-based models, these assumptions come from physical factors like the presence of mountains or armed groups, and are explicitly testable.
2. Forecasting one thing requires you to forecast many other things as well. When we forecast how people escape conflict, we must forecast how the conflict will evolve. And that could depend on future market prices, weather/climate effects, or political changes, all of which would need forecasting too. To be clear: we did not require any of these models when we validated our predictions against a historical situation, so we are building new models just to make forecasts possible.
3. Forcibly displaced people are usually fleeing from unexpected and disruptive events. Here the data upon which the machine learning algorithms are “trained” is incomplete, biased or often non-existent. We argue that agent-based models are more effective because they do not need training data, and benefit from understanding the processes that drive forced displacement.

So we have not cracked it.

Yes, forecasting is hard. We do not yet know where climate refugees and other forcibly displaced people are going. We still need huge supercomputers just to forecast next week’s weather.

So it pays to be suspicious of the idea that refugee forecasting is already solved, especially if linked to claims that the “next frontier” for computer scientists is in (controversially) extracting data from vulnerable refugees who are often unaware of the privacy and security risks. Given how hard it remains to predict where the millions of climate refugees will go, the “next frontier” is still the last frontier.

Source Link: https://theconversation.com/climate-refugees-why-we-cant-yet-predict-where-millions-of-displaced-people-will-go-119414

The absence of Native perspectives in American history books and classrooms has been remarked on for over 50 years. Will it ever change?

Nick Martin November 28, 2019

In a December 1862 letter to the Senate, President Abraham Lincoln ordered the execution of 39 Sioux citizens. In 1851, the Santee Sioux had ceded the land known as Minnesota to the United States in a pair of treaties, in exchange for a constant supply of services and wares to be provided by the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Like countless treaties signed by the U.S., the agreements were not honored. Corruption consumed the BIA, and basic food items were subject to price gouging. And so, on the brink of starvation in the early winter of 1862, several hundred Sioux raided white towns and villages, looking for the rations that the government had stolen from them and that the colonizers had previously refused to trade with them.

If one is to believe the historians, Lincoln’s decision to impose 39 death penalties for the Sioux Uprising was one of delicate political balance: He had to kill enough Native resisters so as to stifle any future uprisings but not so many that he provoked another. Thirty-nine was the number he landed on after reviewing the transcripts, down from the 303 execution requests made by the military leaders in Minnesota. His letter to the Senate simultaneously served as both the largest mass execution order and the largest clemency order in U.S. history. Ultimately, 38 Sioux were hanged by the neck until death for having the gall to try to keep their people alive. As they stood atop the trap door, with nooses waiting to deliver the final snap, the condemned men spoke their names and cried out “I’m here! I’m here!”

Ten months later, Lincoln signed another letter. This one was a proclamation: As of October 3, 1863, the president, hoping to bring a symbolic sense of calm and joy to a nation torn in two by the still-raging Civil War, declared the fourth Thursday in November to be “a Day of Thanksgiving and Praise.” Never mind the true history of the day Lincoln sought to memorialize, which, aside from its first peaceable but fragile iteration, had twice commemorated the slaying of Wampanoags in battle. Like the 38 Sioux, that was lost to the past: All that mattered was what the living told themselves and their children.

If you grew up going to public school in this country, you probably don’t recall much, if anything, about Lincoln’s execution order. In the long run, it was hardly exceptional for the U.S., save for how many Native lives it doomed, and even that figure was dwarfed by an endless number of massacres and “battles,” carried out by the military, private companies, and citizens. It was business as usual for a young nation with imperialist desires, with a touch of faux mercy to make it go down smoother for a president who would preside over the forced removal of the Navajo and Pueblo people and the Sands Creek Massacre of 1864. In truth, Lincoln, like many who would follow him, was not so different in practice from the more notoriously Native-hating Andrew Jackson: another chief executive who cared little for or about the Indigenous people he shared a continent with. But American textbooks only have room for so many villains.

It is a pity that so many Americans today think of the Indian as a romantic or comic figure in American history without contemporary significance. In fact, the Indian plays much the same role in our American society that the Jews played in Germany. Like the miner’s canary, the Indian marks the shifts from fresh air to poison gas in our political atmosphere; and our treatment of Indians, even more than our treatment of other minorities, reflects the rise and fall in our democratic faith.

Just a little over 100 years after Lincoln signed the first Thanksgiving proclamation, these words by Felix Cohen appeared quoted in the opening to the 1969 Kennedy Report on Indian Education. The report was helmed by Senator Ted Kennedy and serves as a bedrock document in the Native education and political communities: For the first time, possibly ever, it signaled that major U.S. political players were finally paying attention to the erasure of Native communities from the American mosaic. As part of the report, a review of 100 educational texts taken from public schools across the country came to the belated conclusion that Native people were viewed as little more than “subhuman wild beasts in the path of civilization.”

While I was reporting last year on North Carolina’s decision to close down the High Plains Indian School and integrate my tribe, the Sappony, in 1963, I heard directly from family members about how such slanted curricula affected Native students’ experience. My uncles and aunts told me stories of the other kids at school asking them if they had scalped anyone or if they carried tomahawks, and of discriminatory treatment doled out by teachers and administrators to Sappony children, whose only crime was having skin that was a little darker than their own.

In the 50 years since the Kennedy Report was published, Americans have barely moved an inch when it comes to demanding an accurate historical or contemporary view of Native people be taught in public schools. And this has had a marked effect on Native children forced to listen to their histories being twisted to fit a narrative of deity-ordained land theft and warfare. Writing on this in 1985, Lee Little Soldier found that Native students still often felt “trapped between their birthright and the dominant society, losing touch with the former, but not feeling comfortable in the latter.”

But almost more important than the need for Native children to see themselves properly represented is for those who will have a say in how these curricula are established (in other words, the white-run PTAs and local administrative boards) to correct their own understanding of American history. They also need to accurately perceive the present, realizing that Native communities and individuals exist everywhere, from the reservation to the city to the suburbs. Only by engaging with these communities, including them in the lesson-planning process as living societies rather than mythical figures, can the American school system begin to teach its children how not to exclude and appropriate Native history.

This point was underlined in a 2006 article in the Phi Delta Kappan by Bobby Ann Starnes. While Starnes was relatively well educated on Native history, she found when she began teaching at a predominantly Indigenous school system that all of her knowledge had been historicized—she had no idea of what it meant to actually converse with and teach and befriend Native people, teaching history in a way that has moral weight in the present. “What seem like small matters of word choice,” she wrote, “are important (e.g., did Indians wage war or resist aggression?).” 

Recent years have seen small steps toward delivering teachers and students the overdue updates required to teach these new lessons. The National Educators Association now makes available materials on how to teach Thanksgiving in a historically accurate and culturally sensitive manner. Signed in December 2015, the Every Student Succeeds Act, President Barack Obama’s replacement for No Child Left Behind, required states and local educational agencies to consult with tribes and tribal organizations as they developed their state lesson plans, should they hope to obtain Title I grant funding. Charter schools established to teach history through a Native lens have sprouted with increasing popularity in cities such as Denver and Oklahoma City and Seattle. (As a case in North Carolina recently showed, there are drawbacks to this approach.) But half a century after the federal government declared the country’s biased Indigenous history lessons an educational crisis, these partial measures feel shockingly insufficient.

Fall is a brutal time of year to be Native. Halloween brings “Sexy Indian Princess” costumes. Native American Heritage Month almost inevitably comes with fumbles that undercut the purpose, even without a president trying to squeeze “Founding Fathers” into the month as well. And then there’s Thanksgiving. Even in 2019, principals and teachers deem it appropriate to dress their children up as Natives and celebrate “an annual Pow Wow,” and then post pictures on social media, before being yelled at and quickly deleting their appropriative efforts to whitewash history. Nor are the stereotypes and questionable attempts at representation limited to rural schools, as Saturday Night Live’s recent skit with Will Ferrell, Fred Armisen, and Maya Rudolph dressing up as the relatives of Matoaka (commonly known as Pocahontas) and rambling off a series of shallow punch lines again showed.

Native children have never had the pleasure of seeing themselves and their people adequately acknowledged in their teachers’ lesson plans. Thanksgiving is handled with satin gloves for the sake of the white children. They can learn the name of the chief who sat with the pilgrims of Plymouth, but not that those same pilgrims mounted his son’s head on a pike above their town and left his body to publicly rot. To acknowledge the true history of Thanksgiving would only be the first step, a slippery slope to a nation daring to utter the word “genocide” when thinking about its foundations. It would be a screeching slam of the guitar in the middle of a rendition of “This Land Is Your Land.” It would be the truth.

Source Link: https://newrepublic.com/article/155837/thanksgiving-another-reminder-america-forgot

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